Ned
Baier, AICP,
Senior Project
Manager
Jennifer
Willman, AICP,
Project Manager
Jacobs
Engineering
Group
The
Lee County
Metropolitan
Planning
Organization (MPO)
is undertaking an
intensive effort to
explore alternative
ways the county
could grow that
would reduce or
shorten vehicle
trips and increase
other travel
options. Identifying
future land use
patterns as
alternative
scenarios will allow
the MPO and citizens
of Lee County to
evaluate the costs
and benefits of
different patterns.
At the end of this
process, the MPO
will select a
preferred land use
scenario, which will
become the basis of
the future
transportation
vision in the MPO's
forthcoming 2040
Long Range
Transportation Plan
(LRTP).
The
Federal Highway
Administration
(FHWA) and Federal
Transit
Administration (FTA)
encourage scenario
planning as a way to
enhance the
traditional planning
process. Scenario
planning provides a
framework for
creating a shared
future vision by
analyzing various
factors, such as
transportation,
economic,
environmental, and
land use issues.
Through comparing
scenarios and
discussing their
possible outcomes,
the technique helps
participants to
identify and
challenge
assumptions about
the future, discuss
tradeoffs, and make
more effective
decisions about
investments.
The
FHWA Scenario
Planning Guidebook
(February 2011)
provides examples of
scenario planning
analysis tools such
as INDEX,
CommunityViz, and
UrbanSim. Many of
these tools use a
Geographic
Information Systems
(GIS) format so that
users can
geospatially plot
scenarios and more
easily visualize
outcomes. More
information from
FHWA about scenario
planning is
available at
www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenario_and_visualization/scenario_planning.
For
the Lee County
project, the MPO
retained Jacobs
Engineering Group,
assisted by
Spikowski Planning
Associates and
Criterion Planners.
Coordination among
various
stakeholders, local
government and
agency planners, the
general public, the
MPO Committees, and
the MPO Board is
occurring throughout
scenario
development,
comparison of
alternatives, and
selection of the
preferred scenario.
The
consulting team is
coordinating closely
with all the local
government planning
staffs throughout
the process of
formulating
alternative growth
scenarios. Since
land use decisions
are ultimately made
by each local
government, it is
very important that
each of the local
jurisdictions,
particularly the
community
development staffs,
participate in the
process. The
preferred scenario
selected should be
seen as achievable
by local
policymakers, even
if substantial
barriers lie ahead.
First
steps in this
process included the
development of goals
and objectives to
identify desirable
targets that the
alternate land use
scenarios may be
able to achieve, and
selection of
measures of
effectiveness that
will be used to
formally evaluate
the scenarios. The
goals and objectives
are generally
consistent with the
results of the
visioning process
that Lee County has
already undertaken
as part of the
Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and
Appraisal Report
(EAR) process over
the last three
years, in addition
to all the local
governments' most
recent planning
efforts.
An
important component
of this project is
an interactive
"planners workshop"
in December 2013, to
identify potential
future
concentrations of
housing and jobs and
help create the
alternative
scenarios.
This will be done
using Criterion's
INDEX land use
model, which has an
integrated database
that can assess key
indicators such as
vehicle miles
traveled, densities,
and energy
consumption.
INDEX
is an integrated
suite of planning
support tools for
neighborhoods,
communities, and
regions. It was
introduced in 1994
for land use,
transportation, and
environmental
planners and
educators. INDEX
applications usually
begin with benchmark
measurements of
existing conditions
to create a frame of
reference for
evaluating
alternative futures.
The tools are then
used to design and
visualize scenarios,
score their
performance, and
compare and rank
them in terms of
goal achievement.
Once a preferred
alternative is
selected, its
incremental
implementation can
be evaluated for
goal consistency,
and cumulative
changes can be
measured with
periodic progress
reports.
Public
engagement on the
scenarios is planned
to begin in early
2014. MetroQuest
will be utilized as
an online community
engagement platform
to evaluate the
alternative land use
scenarios, accessed
on the web or mobile
devices. This
software enables the
public to learn
about the project
and provide
meaningful feedback
using a variety of
fun and visual
screens. It is easy
to mix and match
screens to identify
priorities, rate
scenarios or
strategies, add
comments on maps,
and much more.
Following
the public
engagement
activities, scenario
selection by the Lee
County MPO Board is
anticipated for late
spring or summer
2014. The
socioeconomic data
for the development
of the 2040 LRTP
will be based on the
selected scenario.
For more information
about the Lee County
MPO Land Use
Scenarios Project,
visit
www.leempo.com/LandUseScenarios_000.shtml, or contact Don Scott, Lee
MPO Executive
Director, at (239)
330-2241, or email
dscott@leempo.com.
